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According forecast by David Chapman, http://www.safehaven.com/article/19484/forecast-2011-a-year-of-transition 2011 will be same to 1950.
The July 2010 low coincided with that of 1950, although the top was seen in April 2010. What followed in 1950 was a rally into year-end and, following a pause, a strong rally that carried into May 1951 before a correction got underway. Following that correction, the market generally traded in an irregular sideways pattern for the remainder of 1951 and through 1952.
There is the long-term Kondratieff cycle of recession/depressions. This is a much shorter 50-60 years and is last considered to have bottomed in 1949. The idealized Kondratieff Wave cycle is shown below. It corresponds with depressions that occurred in the late 18th century, the depression of 1836-42, the Long Depression of 1873-96 and the Great Depression of 1930-42. The Kondratieff long wave is generally not accepted by traditional economists but there is some evidence that it does exist. Significantly, a period of 50-60 years from 1949 encompasses the past decade, which culminated in the financial panic of 2008 and stock market low of 2009. But given the possible influence of the longer 72-year and 90-year cycles, this particular Kondratieff Wave may not yet have seen its nadir. At the end of the other long waves the culmination of debt build-up was largely cleansed via bankruptcy and defaults. Today this process is still being worked out.
The destruction of the boomers' retirement plans continues. With the broader economy mired in the subprime housing collapse, debt collapse and high unemployment, that situation is not about to change any time soon, no matter how much money is thrown at it.
The well-known Kitchin cycle of 3-5 years is what plays as a series of stock market lows about every four years. From the Great Depression low of 1932, stock market lows were seen in 1938, 1942, 1946, 1949, 1953, 1957, 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1987, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2005 (very shallow) and 2009. The next Kitchin cycle low is due anywhere from 2012 to 2014.
Stock cycles analyst Michael Jenkins (www.StockCyclesForecast.com) has pointed out that there are numerous long-term cycles all meeting through this time period. He notes that 2,000 years ago the "Fall of Rome" got underway. Today's Rome is the Anglo-American empire which is by most calculations teetering on the edge of bankruptcy and involved in a series of potentially unwinnable wars. For sure it took the Roman Empire another 500 years to destroy itself, but the long collapse saw a series of currency devaluations and the build-up of huge and unsustainable debt levels.
A thousand years ago we had the beginning of the Crusades, undertaken in the Middle East. It was therefore odd that former President George W. Bush saw his wars in the Middle East as a crusade. The Crusades were undertaken to restore Christian control of the holy lands. They continued irregularly from 1095 to 1291, a period of nearly 200 years. Today's wars are in only their tenth year, at a cost now exceeding $1.4 trillion.
Five hundred years ago there was the rise of the Protestant reformation under Martin Luther. It was the beginning of a period of exploration that saw the Europeans conquer North America. Two hundred years ago we had the Napoleonic wars of the early 19th century and the War of 1812 between Britain and the USA. A hundred years later saw the global conflict of WW1 that resulted in the defeat of Germany and the fall of the Ottoman Empire. The consequences of the latter are still being felt today. Ironically there is a new rise of the Ottoman Turks underway. Could that be something to watch in the future?
One hundred and fifty years ago was the Civil War in the USA. Today it is a cultural civil war underway between the secular north-east; north-west and west against the religious right dominate in the US south and mid-west. The movement is led ostensibly by the "Tea Party".
Ray Merriman (www.mmacycles.com) cites long-term cycles of economic depression and stock market collapses that appear to occur at roughly 72-year and 90-year frequencies. The last one, the Great Depression, was a convergence of those two cycles.
According forecast by David Chapman, http://www.safehaven.com/article/19484/forecast-2011-a-year-of-transition 2011 will be same to 1950.
The July 2010 low coincided with that of 1950, although the top was seen in April 2010. What followed in 1950 was a rally into year-end and, following a pause, a strong rally that carried into May 1951 before a correction got underway. Following that correction, the market generally traded in an irregular sideways pattern for the remainder of 1951 and through 1952.
There is the long-term Kondratieff cycle of recession/depressions. This is a much shorter 50-60 years and is last considered to have bottomed in 1949. The idealized Kondratieff Wave cycle is shown below. It corresponds with depressions that occurred in the late 18th century, the depression of 1836-42, the Long Depression of 1873-96 and the Great Depression of 1930-42. The Kondratieff long wave is generally not accepted by traditional economists but there is some evidence that it does exist. Significantly, a period of 50-60 years from 1949 encompasses the past decade, which culminated in the financial panic of 2008 and stock market low of 2009. But given the possible influence of the longer 72-year and 90-year cycles, this particular Kondratieff Wave may not yet have seen its nadir. At the end of the other long waves the culmination of debt build-up was largely cleansed via bankruptcy and defaults. Today this process is still being worked out.
The destruction of the boomers' retirement plans continues. With the broader economy mired in the subprime housing collapse, debt collapse and high unemployment, that situation is not about to change any time soon, no matter how much money is thrown at it.
Stock cycles analyst Michael Jenkins (www.StockCyclesForecast.com) has pointed out that there are numerous long-term cycles all meeting through this time period. He notes that 2,000 years ago the "Fall of Rome" got underway. Today's Rome is the Anglo-American empire which is by most calculations teetering on the edge of bankruptcy and involved in a series of potentially unwinnable wars. For sure it took the Roman Empire another 500 years to destroy itself, but the long collapse saw a series of currency devaluations and the build-up of huge and unsustainable debt levels.
A thousand years ago we had the beginning of the Crusades, undertaken in the Middle East. It was therefore odd that former President George W. Bush saw his wars in the Middle East as a crusade. The Crusades were undertaken to restore Christian control of the holy lands. They continued irregularly from 1095 to 1291, a period of nearly 200 years. Today's wars are in only their tenth year, at a cost now exceeding $1.4 trillion.
Five hundred years ago there was the rise of the Protestant reformation under Martin Luther. It was the beginning of a period of exploration that saw the Europeans conquer North America. Two hundred years ago we had the Napoleonic wars of the early 19th century and the War of 1812 between Britain and the USA. A hundred years later saw the global conflict of WW1 that resulted in the defeat of Germany and the fall of the Ottoman Empire. The consequences of the latter are still being felt today. Ironically there is a new rise of the Ottoman Turks underway. Could that be something to watch in the future?
One hundred and fifty years ago was the Civil War in the USA. Today it is a cultural civil war underway between the secular north-east; north-west and west against the religious right dominate in the US south and mid-west. The movement is led ostensibly by the "Tea Party".
Ray Merriman (www.mmacycles.com) cites long-term cycles of economic depression and stock market collapses that appear to occur at roughly 72-year and 90-year frequencies. The last one, the Great Depression, was a convergence of those two cycles.
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