Why Russia will repeat the fate of Tunisia and Egypt

In the book "Political Marketing" by E. Mushinsky in 2008 it was predicted that enough of the revolution in one country, as the mental virus of discontent will result in similar events in countries with similar conditions. And just like the script, at the same time breaking out of the revolution in Egypt and Albania, two other major tourist countries in the Muslim underground.

In the West, not for nothing that worried about the fate of Albania. There are conditions for revolution, even better than in Tunisia. Especially there are many reasons for disappointment and frustration. After the last decade has been the most successful in the history of Albania. Economic growth since the late 90's. kept at 5-7% per year, GDP has doubled over this time,

Russia Recalls: doubling GDP, solid vertkal authorities that after the crisis has passed in the orgy of corruption and popular discontent and extremist attacks Muslims.

The response to terrorism is a universal surveillance via the mobile Internet

Here closes the main trend of world economy - the rapid growth of ICT-sector and the interest of governments to prevent terrorist attacks.
Mark Saster wrote: "Since 2006, I was very worried about what I call the" problem of Facebook »: they are trying to tighten my one big social network. No one can be in the same social network. That network, where I'm going to talk to friends about our drunken party last weekend, I do not want to share with their family network, where I show pictures of their children's parents and brothers. " Proper social networks - Quora, HackerNews, Namesake, StockTwits ». http://techcrunch.com/2010/12/05/social-networking-future/
Thus, the future for specialized social networks. It is here - the main point of the ICT-sector growth and the global economy as a whole.
But only for those who know "how podstelit straw."
"Any added value created by the Internet refers to the distribution and personalization," - said Jose Ferreira, CEO and founder of the service Knewton - site of the breakthrough last year. Top site
Making a splash in the professional circles bestseller Don Tapscott (Don Tapscott) "Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything", has still not haunted by readers and reviewers. The book, written by an unprecedented study of multi-million dollar, paid, including the companies IBM, Cisco, SBC (now - AT & T) and Bell Canada, talks about the new principles of building a business in the digital era, which the author calls "the era of cooperation."
Only losers launch sites, the winners of open living communities - writes Tapscott co-authored with Anthony Williams (Anthony D. Williams). - Losers are building walled gardens, and the winners - the square. Losers jealously guarded their data, and the winners share them with everyone. "
Source of innovation

M. Khodorkovsky blames Putin in the disposal of assets from the country

BP agreed to exchange $7.8 billion of stock for 9.5 percent of Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer after aquiring Yukos assets in 2007.

Ex-owner of Yukos company Mikhail Khodorkovsky has called the charges against him retribution for political opposition to President Vladimir Putin.

 Is no longer a secret the identity of co-owner of Gunvor, the main exporter of Rosneft, Gennady Timchenko. He is a close friend of Putin.

The operation of special services of Russia to withdraw assets from the country has successfully passed the next round, with a deal between Rosneft and BP.

Russia quotation on global export and science

http://znacomstva.blogspot.com/2011/01/blog-post_21.html  
Striking quotations from official Russia's Development Strategy 
http://www.economy.gov.ru/minec/activity/sections/innovations/doc20101231_016During the Putin years (from 2003 to 2008) exports of high-tech products from Russia dropped nearly doubled (from 0.45% to 0.25% of world exports) ...
"Remains low, and specific indicators of scientific performance. So, in Singapore on one article in internationally recognized journals have 3.6 active researcher in Germany and France - 3,5 researchers in Argentina - 5.8, Japan - 9,2 . In Russia the figure is 16.4 (in China, by comparison, 13,2). "
<span style="font-weight:bold;"> "This" cost "of a Russian publication (the ratio of internal costs for research and development and the total number of scientific publications) grew in the 2000s. faster pace and was already in 2008 848 thousand dollars compared to </ span> w, for example, from 221 thousand U.S. dollars in Poland

Education of the Future - Education throught Internet

What does the teacher? Sells wholesale knowledge of public education so that she distributirovala their subscription to the public. And what if the knowledge to sell the pieces, and directly? Earnings on an educational retail trying to put on a conveyor such projects as Udemy.com, Supercoolschool.com and others. Based on them "eduprener - Entrepreneur of education - can create a maximum of one hour at least a separate course, although a online university and earn a teaching there. Deal with only a couple of mouse clicks. Uploading lessons, do some of them free, some - chargeable, announces webinars. Can conduct individual lessons, you can create a class at least 100 people. This is your university. "Education of the Future - Education Without Walls, curriculum and scheduling," - says the founder of "Metaver" Dmitry Peskov said. He is a propagandist of the concept of tutors in education and I am confident that with the increase in the rate of consumption of knowledge, we need a consultant, and the focus of the educational process will shift to the mechanisms to choose the educational product. No less significant figure than the teacher, will be the one who will tell you where to find it and what course to join.
"Why today is full of companies offering help in choosing a mortgage, but not those who built to your individual educational track?" - Asks Ilya Savchuk, co-founder of "Soling". British startup Schoolofeverything engaged in settling pupils and teachers. Main idea - to search for the principle of proximity. In fact, pretty stupid to go to dance lessons in a nearby town. It is desirable that the teacher lived close and had good recommendations.
"Any added value created by the Internet refers to the distribution and personalization," - said Jose Ferreira, CEO and founder of the service Knewton
 "Образование будущего — образование без стен, учебного плана и расписаний",— уверен основатель проекта "Метавер" Дмитрий Песков. Он пропагандист концепции тьюторов в образовании и уверен, что с повышением скорости потребления знаний нам потребуется консультант, а фокус учебного процесса сместится на механизмы выбора образовательного продукта. Не менее значимой фигурой, чем учитель, станет тот, кто расскажет, где его найти и на какие курсы записаться.

"Почему сегодня полно компаний, предлагающих помощь в выборе ипотечного кредита, но нет тех, кто выстроил бы ваш индивидуальный образовательный трек?" — задается вопросом Илья Савчук, соучредитель компании "Солинг". Британский стартап Schoolofeverything занялся сведением учеников с учителями. Главная идея — поиск по принципу соседства. Действительно, довольно глупо ездить на урок танцев в соседний город. Желательно, чтобы преподаватель жил близко и имел хорошие рекомендации.

"Любая добавленная стоимость, создаваемая в интернете, относится к дистрибуции или персонализации",— говорит Хосе Феррейра, CEO и основатель сервиса Knewton

Russia is science outsider

According to the number of citations per article, Russia is at 77 seats - just after Nigeria

 http://scimagojr.com/countryrank.php?area=0&category=0&region=all&year=all&order=cd&min=5000&min_type=it

Demographic problems against democracy

In 2011, the Europeans need to read the novel by Jose Saramago (José Saramago) "As Intermitências da Morte" («Irregularities in death"). James Wood (James Wood) published in the magazine "New Yorker" an informative review of this book. At a time when the midnight heralds the advent of the year in some country with a population of approximately 10 million, announces the death of a truce: it is dismissive, and residents are now beginning to understand what it means to live forever. Initially, the inhabitants of this unnamed country covered by the euphoria. But soon their world returned to various "inconveniences" - metaphysical, political, and pragmatic. The Catholic Church acknowledges that "there is no resurrection without death, but without the idea of resurrection is not religion." For insurance companies, life without death, too, means a complete collapse. Before the state gets an insoluble problem - always pay pensions. Families with elderly and decrepit relatives realize that only death will save them from the endless care. Country in which no one dies inevitably becomes a ruthless Malthusian dystopia. Gradually formed a mafia character plot: to kidnap the old and sick people and transport them to neighboring countries, that they were dying. The Prime Minister said the monarch in warning: "If we do not die, we lose our future." In my view, the novel Saramago - an excellent introduction to the "age of aging" - this applies especially to Europe, where in 2011 could be a turning point, when demographic ideas will ultimately prevail over democratic. The democratic way of thinking, which prevailed over the past two decades, has inspired us with hope that we can change the world. The demographic way of thinking scares us the idea that in future the world will change us.

See for detail http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2008/10/27/081027crbo_books_wood

В 2011 г. европейцам нужно читать  роман Жозе Сарамаго (José Saramago) “As Intermitências da Morte” («Перебои в смерти»).
Страна, в которой никто не умирает, неизбежно становится безжалостной мальтузианской антиутопией. Исподволь формируется мафиозного характера заговор: похищать старых и больных людей и перевозить их в соседние страны, чтобы они там умирали. Премьер-министр предостерегающе говорит монарху: «Если мы не начнем умирать, то лишимся будущего».
На мой взгляд, роман Сарамаго – отличное введение в «эпоху старения» – особенно это относится к Европе, где 2011 г. может стать поворотным моментом, когда демографические идеи одержат верх над демократическими. Демократический образ мыслей, который господствовал на протяжении двух последних десятилетий, вдохновлял нас надеждой на то, что мы можем изменить мир. Демографический образ мыслей пугает нас идеей, что в перспективе мир изменит нас.

Internet revolution in Tunisia

Analisis of blogger revolution

Revolution 2.0: Rebooting Tunisia
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/revolution_20_rebooting_tunisia.php

Venture data and prognosis

During 2010, the market U.S. venture capital investment took place in 2792 deals worth 23.7 billion dollars, up 13% over 2009. The greatest number of transactions - 37% of the total - occurred in Internet projects. The volume of investment in 2010 grew by 14%.
In the 4 th quarter of 2010 the volume of venture capital investments in the U.S. peaked in the last 8 quarters. At the same time as the maximum value over the past 2 years and reached the number of transactions, the report said CB Insights.
During this period, was carried out 735 transactions totaling $ 6.5 billion, compared with the 3 rd quarter of last year the total volume of investments increased by approximately 12%.
The volume of investments in internet projects grew by 21%, projects a "clean" energy - by 7% in health projects - by 2%. On Internet projects had the largest number of transactions - 37% of the total.
http://znacomstva.blogspot.com/2011/01/blog-post_20.html

Prognosis http://vsocial.livejournal.com/113279.html

Difference between normal country and corrupt counties

This is normal coutry - in Australia, peaceful farmers save kangaroos.

while in Russia and other corrupt countries, the authorities oppress people, and people make the revolution
  difference between normal country and corrupt counties

Truth about Scolcovo and his curator Vekselberg

Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Skolkovo lobbying own Swiss company Oerlikon. Her research will cost the state 750 million Renova Group of Companies as a whole does not carry a small innovative enterprises. As well as the Swiss company Oerlikon Viktor Vekselberg, in particular. In 2006, when the Russian businessman bought the shares of a Swiss company, Oerlikon revenue was $ 1.86 billion
This company in 30 countries "engaged in development in nanoteohnology, produces equipment in the field of semiconductors, vacuum technology, storage technology, the production of projection screens and space electronics.
Since then, Vekselberg managed to build a center on application of nano, which increase stability and durability of the surfaces to external influences, in the suburban town of Elektorstal. Conducted lively discussions with giants such as KAMAZ, GAZ, the Russian Technologies Rostvertol, Energomash. That is, business is growing and spreading. Why is the principal owner of a rich Swiss company does not want to covenants Russian president made "private investor" of its own tempting project, and instead requests 750 million from the state? Habit 90 years? And what is the meaning of this innovative project for the presidential innograda Skolkovo - in the development of Oerlikon?
"Academicians of the Russian Academy of Sciences of sounding the alarm: while domestic basic science does not receive one third of the needed financing, as in the RAS is the reduction of the reduction, cost billions of rubles were provided to support all sorts of dubious scientific and technological laboratories and associations, under the guise of developing innovative projects dealing with development of public funds. In the first half of July Commission for the Modernization and Technological Development of the Russian economy under the Russian president would finally determine which projects will receive support, and what - no, but without the participation of Sciences peer review can not be sufficiently accurate. For lzheinnovatsy scientists have invented a name - "nanopodstavy. The correspondent of "our version" figured out how the scammers make fabulous money on pseudo-surveys and why they are not punished for it.
In the very near future we will know whether state aid self-heating food packaging, promoted by VTB Venture Fund (the development of a container with a special reagent, heated to 70 degrees Celsius, has already spent about a hundred million budget, despite the fact that the idea of self-heating products ceased to be an innovation 100 years ago). Will the State Ministry of Economy with the promotion of questionable drug FZ-101, which will be treated immediately by bacterial, viral and fungal infections (company Rafarma "allocated about 200 million rubles for the development of the drug), or the processing of seized drugs in medicine, technology, which were developed 20 years ago?
Scientists claim that the most innovative proposals submitted to the Government and the Presidential Commission on Modernization, in fact, are nothing else but the usual profanity. "About 70% of such applications are made according to patterns practiced by the directors of research institutes in the 70's and 80's - told the correspondent of" our version "a senior official of the Commission to modernize the Russian president. - Have not changed and Methods: same as 30 years ago, is "the pusher" - a man with ties at the top ", which promotes a hopeless project, effectively blackmailing us to the intervention of some VIPs. We do have problems with filtering applications for funding, and it happens that such a "pusher" mistaken for a serious innovator. "
That's how the list of priority projects eligible for support from the government of the country, got that already became a byword draft study of torsion fields RANS Anatoly Akimov. Very unfortunate innovator for three years as no longer with us, but that's it, as it turns out, lives: in gaining government support for the project put forward a co-author of the late Gennady Thorns also RANS.

The best article about Russia - the country of "addicted" innovators - you can see on investment truth blog about Scolcovo

Only 2 russian in Top-20 world ITC experts

 Kawasaki leead Top-20 world ITC experts.

Other the best experts

2. David Sifry – www.sifry.com
Linuxcare and Technorati founder.

3. Michael Arrington -  www.techcrunch.com

4. Joi Ito – joi.ito.com
Charman of Creative Commons,  «Six Apart Japan», and Neoteny Co.

5. Nick Denton – – www.nickdenton.org

Other ITC-experts - http://vsocial.livejournal.com/109965.html

Sources of economic forecasts - in rating order

1. UN - World Economic Situation and Prospects 

The report cautions that despite these more encouraging headline figures, the recovery is uneven and conditions for sustained growth remain fragile. Credit conditions are still tight in major developed economies, where many major financial institutions need to continue the process of deleveraging and cleansing their balance-sheets. The rebound in domestic demand remains tentative at best in many economies and is far from self-sustaining. Much of the rebound in the real economy is due to the strong fiscal stimulus provided by Governments in a large number of developed and developing countries and to the restocking of inventories by industries worldwide. Consumption and investment demand remain weak, however, as unemployment and underemployment rates continue to rise and output gaps remain wide in most countries. In the outlook, the global economic recovery is expected to remain sluggish, employment prospects will remain bleak and inflation will stay low. 

2.Financial Times outlook
Should investors switch out of bonds into equities?
Yes. Picking assets, at least at the start of the year, will be about choosing the least worst option. Equities have risen a lot since their 2009 trough. Bonds have also enjoyed an impressive ride, although theirs arguably started earlier, in the 1980s. US Treasury yields have fallen from 16 per cent to 3 per cent over that period. But assuming – and it could be a big assumption – that western economies continue to recover, equities should do better than bonds, where yields could rise sharply. Investors looking for yield may plump for dividend-rich stocks. A worsened eurozone debt crisis could knock the stuffing out of equities. In 2011, markets could also wake up to the fact that authorities are potentially just storing up problems for 2012 and beyond. 


3.
Nouriel Roubini, New York University Professor of Economics and co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, addresses a luncheon during the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong
Roubini Global Economics (RGE) has predicted that global economy's growth next year will be marginally weaker than this year, with eurozone holding the biggest risk to global growth, and that the U.S. will not emerge any time soon from the worst unemployment crisis it has faced in decades.
RGE's global outlook for 2011 says a large part of the advanced world will continue to struggle with balance-sheet repair and debt crises, while plans to manage monetary exit strategies and fiscal sustainability remain uncertain at best. The report also says growth in the emerging world will also slip from the above-potential rates record this year and that tensions between the U.S and China will continue to be in focus.
Following are some details of RGE's 2011 outlook for individual economies:
UNITED STATES
Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the global financial meltdown of 2008, has revised down the outlook for the U.S. gross domestic product growth from a previously forecasted 2.8 percent this year to 2.7 percent, adding that the pace of growth will be insufficient to spur job growth.
"GDP growth in 2011 will most likely support a pace of job creation that will be barely capable of absorbing increases in the labor force and will fail to bring down the unemployment rate significantly." Roubini says unemployment will remain high at around 9.5 percent.
The report predicts the disturbing possibility that it will take at least a decade to bring down unemployment rate to five percent, even if the U.S. economy grows at a rate of 4 percent a year.
Also, inflation will remain below expectations, the report says. "Inflation will remain well below the implicit 2% Fed target for core PCE for quite some time. This implies no change in Fed policy; i.e., completion of the large-scale asset-purchase program and perhaps more quantitative easing."
However, the report predicts that the possibility of the country slipping back into recession is much lower now than before. "The tail risk of a double dip now is much lower than before: around 15-20%."
EUROZONE
The report says economic growth in most of the major economies in the eurozone, including Germany, France and Italy, will slow down in 2011 and countries will have to follow stimulative fiscal policies.
"Next year will see major fiscal, structural and institutional adjustment in the eurozone (EZ) that could set the stage for future integration and cohesion if the political will can be mustered; or risk disorderly financial pressures in the EZ—and possibly a break-up—if these reforms are not implemented."

4. Thomson Reuters and Freeman Consulting Services
Global M&A activity is at its highest level since late 2009, providing a glimmer of hope for investors struggling to decipher stock and bond markets.
Global takeovers announced in the first three quarters of the year reached $2.03 trillion, an increase of 22% compared with the $1.67 trillion in deals announced in the same period last year, according to a report from data-tracking firm Dealogic.
Investors' hopes often soar when M&A activity picks up because acquisitions are often a sign that companies are confident the economy will grow and business will improve. Investors' hopes are also buoyed because few things cause the price of a company's stock to rise faster than an unsolicited takeover offer.
Consider that the all-time record for merger deals in a single year — $4.3 trillion, according to Dealogic — came in 2007. That's the same year the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its all-time high.
The feverish pace continued in 2008, until deal volume fell off a cliff after the economy collapsed, and stocks plunged. November 2008 marked the lowest level of M&A activity since 1995, when Dealogic started tracking deal volume.
But thanks to low prices for takeover target companies, historically high cash balances and easier credit terms, the atmosphere for deals in 2011 is as positive as it's been since the credit crisis sent the economy, and M&A activity, into a tailspin.

Global M&A Set for Surge in 2011
Global M&A activity is expected to increase 36% next year to $3.04 trillion, driven by a big pick-up in deals in the real estate and financial services industries, according to a report released by Thomson Reuters and Freeman Consulting Services.
The survey of over 150 worldwide corporate decision makers showed that instead of bargain-hunting for cheap equity deals, next year's buyers are expected to focus on expanding their core businesses to increase market share, Jeff Nassof, an associate consultant with Freeman told Daily Finance.
"We did the same survey last year and the target [company's] valuations were a factor," Nassof says. "But in this year's survey, people aren't just looking for distressed companies and value deals. They're looking at M&A as part of their competitive strategy."
The real estate market is expected to see a whopping 88% increase in M&A activity, with the financial industry finally recovering to post an anticipated 75% increase, the survey also showed.
While real estate M&A is expected to post a dramatic increase next year, Nassof pointed out that the sector is coming off of a relatively small base. Just $2.23 trillion in M&A deals were done last year.
"The overall 2010 levels are still pretty depressed. It's still nothing like the heydays in 2007," Nassof said. "In real estate, confidence in the economy was the top cited factor. Real estate managers are feeling better about the risk and growth out there."
While M&A in the financial industry is normally market-share driven, next year's activity will be marked by efforts to comply with government regulatory changes that call for big investment banks and institutions to wall themselves off from riskier investments, Nassof said. Last spring's financial reform legislation is forcing some big banks to shed riskier assets including hedge funds and certain derivatives.
Another industry expected to see an increase in M&A is health care, where the survey projects a 16% increase next year, largely due to consolidation as a side effect of healthcare legislation.
As usual, technology companies also are expected to be on the prowl. Executives expect valuations of buyouts will remain "reasonable," even though a recent bidding war between Dell Inc. (Nasdaq: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) for 3Par Inc. (Nasdaq: PAR) resulted in a premium of 244%.
Doing Deals in Emerging Markets
Emerging markets are expected to lead the M&A surge in 2011, just as they did in 2010.
Fully 47% of the executives polled said emerging Asian markets are ripe for M&A deals in 2011, with 43% targeting markets in the Americas. By comparison, only 30% are looking at Western Europe and only 18% find Eastern Europe and Russia attractive.
During the first three quarters of 2010, emerging markets accounted for 27.4% of worldwide M&A volume compared to 21% during the comparable period in 2009.
M&A activity in deals across international borders surged during the first nine months of 2010, totaling $723 billion and accounting for 41.2% of overall M&A volume, compared to 26.1% last year.
And Asian companies have the necessary cash to get deals done. According to a report from Moody's Corp. (NYSE: MCO), the total cash reserves of Asian companies touched $231.6 billion in mid-2010. Corporations in the Asian region (excluding Australia and Japan) have seen their aggregate cash balance – including cash, cash equivalents, deposits and short-term investments – grow by almost 60% since the end of 2008.
However, the Moody's report did not take into consideration the reserves of financial companies, in which case the total cash reserves figure would have been much higher.
U.S. companies had cumulative cash holdings of about $1 trillion, over four times more than their Asian counterparts, but the average cash balance of Asian companies was almost double that of US companies, the report noted.

5.
Nobel Prize-winning economists including Paul Krugman,  Myron Scholes and Joseph Stiglitz predicted the credit squeeze will inflict more pain on global growth and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projected half of the world economy faces recession.
``There will be a global recession,'' Scholes said in an interview today at a conference in Lindau, Germany, featuring 14 Nobel laureates in economics. Stiglitz forecast the world economy would continue to perform below its potential for some time, resulting in a ``social loss'' through weaker employment.
A year since the U.S. housing slump sparked about $500 billion in credit-market losses for banks globally, the world's largest economies are all stumbling as rising borrowing costs combine with record commodity prices to sap growth.
The U.S., Japan, the 15-nation euro area and the U.K. are ``either in recession or face significant recession risks in the months ahead,'' Goldman's London-based international economist Binit Patel said in a report to clients today, noting such nations account for half of the world economy.
The ``worst is yet to come,'' said Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing in Hong Kong today. The credit squeeze is turning Li ``very conservative about acquisitions,'' he said.
Bank Collapses
Lone Star Funds, the Dallas-based private equity firm, today agreed to buy IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG after the German bank was felled by the subprime mortgage crisis. Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm, has already collapsed, while the bonds of regional banks such as National City Corp. and Keycorp are under pressure on expectations of more fallout.
``The financial sector needs to shrink,'' said Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, in an interview in Singapore yesterday. ``I don't think simply having a couple of medium-sized banks and a couple of small banks going under is going to do the job.''
Rogoff also said ```the worst is yet to come in the U.S.''
 

6.

David Chapman director of Bullion Management
If the markets are to rally strongly into at least mid-2011, the fuel supplied by rapid monetary growth, QE2 and continued low interest rates will be key. Precedents abound, particularly the periods 1998 to 2000 and 2005 to 2007. Both were characterized by high monetary growth and consistently low interest rates. That long-term rates are now rising is insufficient at this time to derail a potential runaway stock market move. The funds are primarily coming from the financial institutions (banks, investment dealers, hedge funds). However, a rapid stock market rise will at some point become dangerous as blowoffs are always followed by steep rapid declines.
If there is a big negative on the horizon in 2011 it is that the US debt limits will be hit sometime into the late first or early second quarter. Given that the new Republican congress and Republican senators have promised to fight any increase in the debt limit this could give rise to a complete shutdown of government. This confrontation will be a game of brinkmanship but it could also prove to be disastrous for the US stock market. This is an event to watch carefully in 2011.
There is a huge disconnect between the broader economy and the economy dominated by the powerful corporations and financial institutions and those who run them. Much has been said about how the rich are becoming richer while the middle class disappears, to be replaced by a large and permanent underclass. The Gini coefficient, a measure of distribution of wealth and income, has for the USA risen since 1980 from the mid to high 30s to the mid-40s. This puts the US on a par with numerous third world countries. It is the highest coefficient for the US since 1929, just before the Great Depression.
A rising stock market is not necessarily a sign of a healthy economy, if it is being fuelled by monetary policies intended to bring about a rising stock market. And a rising stock market usually benefits only a small percentage of the population. Most of the population remain in low-paying jobs or unemployed and with little hope following the great housing crash of 2007.
While the markets saw slightly higher highs in 2007, the thought remains that the economy and stock market remain in a "secular" bear market. These long-term bear markets can go on for a period of 16 to 20 years - witness the secular bear markets of 1929-49 and 1966-82. But as everyone knows, powerful rallies can take place within a bear market. Between 1966 and 1982, the market revisited the highs of 1966 a number of times before once again plunging.

There is also the long-term Kondratieff cycle of recession/depressions. This is a much shorter 50-60 years and is last considered to have bottomed in 1949. The idealized Kondratieff Wave cycle is shown below. It corresponds with depressions that occurred in the late 18th century, the depression of 1836-42, the Long Depression of 1873-96 and the Great Depression of 1930-42. The Kondratieff long wave is generally not accepted by traditional economists but there is some evidence that it does exist. Significantly, a period of 50-60 years from 1949 encompasses the past decade, which culminated in the financial panic of 2008 and stock market low of 2009. But given the possible influence of the longer 72-year and 90-year cycles, this particular Kondratieff Wave may not yet have seen its nadir. At the end of the other long waves the culmination of debt build-up was largely cleansed via bankruptcy and defaults. Today this process is still being worked out.

7. Justin Modray, founder of website CandidMoney.com, says that investors considering an investment in emerging markets should remember that they tend to follow a pattern. “They grow off the back of exports within one or two dominant sectors, and then benefit from growing domestic demand as populations become wealthier, which invariably boosts the financial services and telecommunications sectors,” he says.
“The key for future success is therefore the outlook for key exports and the potential for continued domestic growth, although investors should bear in mind political issues, corruption and general growing pains often crop up.”


8. John F. Mauldin, President Millennium Wave Investments  
Muddle Through Economy as around 2% growth. That is enough to keep things going forward, but not enough to substantially dig into unemployment or raise incomes. The entire last decade was a Muddle Through decade, with growth averaging 1.9%. 

 9. Bob Pavey, a partner at IT and life sciences investor Morgenthaler:

“2011 will be a surprisingly good year. The recent tax ‘compromise’ and the excellent performance of IPOs in 2010 (particularly IPOs of foreign technology companies) means that we will have a much better IPO climate in 2011. And this means that limited partners will be happier and will start investing in venture capital more aggressively again – particularly in international firms.”

10. Lawrence Roulston, Resource Opportunities/GreenTech Opportunities

There is a wide range of opinions on the outlook for metals, reflecting the uncertainty in nearly all of the variables that impact metal prices.

The sovereign debt and worries and fears of a double dip recession still cloud the outlook for some investors.  Another round of quantitative easing will inject another $600 billion into the global money supply.  The announcement of QE2 built confidence that the American economy will remain in positive territory.  It also re-ignited inflation concerns, pushing gold to a further record high.

Investors were already buying gold for its safe-haven status.  The gold market enjoyed a further boost as investors seek cover from looming inflation (read “currency devaluation”).

 

Consensus economic forecast (Nobel laureates and independent experts)

The rating consensus forecast

the outcome of the global crisis.

http://www.prlog.org/11214169-2011-2015-consensus-forecast-outlook-of-future-europe-rating.html

Truth about recession - Index priced in gold

http://vsocial.livejournal.com/110510.html

This chart shows ratio of the price of the Dow to the price of gold.
The reason for using gold is that gold is the most unbiased form of money. Fake government paper money  excel when everyone is fixated on growth.
When paper burns, gold shines.

The Dow/Gold Ratio chart shows that we are witnessing the end of an era for equities. Stocks had an 10 year bull market where buy and hold was the guaranteed way to make money.